*Originally recorded November 1, 2024*
Popular analysis of the upcoming US election focuses on the spectre of a Trump victory, with a lack of substantive reasons to explain the seemingly irrational appeal to US voters, particularly Trump’s cult-like following among blue collar workers in key swing states that determine national elections. In my 2019 book, The Great Disruption, I argue that Trump’s success in 2016 needs to be understood from a broader historical and comparative perspective. Longer-term forces linked to economic disruption, demographics, global bipolarity, and climate change hold the key to understanding the rise and eventual failure of far right populist movements throughout the West. Such forces push forward the potential for a progressive evolution of society, both in the West and on a global scale, in contrast with the authoritarian capitalist model of China. The timing of the shift depends more on the potential for pragmatic leadership in the West rather than a particular election outcome.